1. Executive Summary
Bullish Assets
5
AI Infra, BoJ (+=Hike), ECB (+=Hike), Fed (+=Hike), RBA (+=Hike)
Bearish Assets
16
of 22 tracked
Deeply Bearish
5
score below −0.50
Unanimous Bear
0
Of 22 canonical assets tracked across 28 banks and 3,537 directional calls over 59 trading dates (2026-02-03 – 2026-04-20), the consensus has turned overwhelmingly bearish. 5 assets remain positive — AI Infra, BoJ (+=Hike), ECB (+=Hike), Fed (+=Hike), RBA (+=Hike). 5 assets sit below −0.50, and 0 — — have reached unanimous bearishness with zero bullish voices remaining.
1b. Today's Changes (2026-04-19 → 2026-04-20)
New calls: ANZ (bear), Barclays (bear), JPM (bear)
| Asset | Previous | Current | Change | B/Be | New Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 2Y (+=Bull Bond) | -0.52 | -0.58 | -0.06 | 3B/14Be | BofA (bear), JPM (bear), MUFG (bear), Mizuho (bear) +1 more |
| S&P500 | -0.27 | -0.18 | +0.09 | 5B/11Be | BofA (bear), GS (bear), JPM (bear), MS (bear) +3 more |
| RBA (+=Hike) | +0.54 | +0.65 | +0.11 | 12B/2Be | ANZ (bull), MUFG (bull) |
| Nasdaq | -0.42 | -0.22 | +0.20 | 3B/8Be | DB (bull), GS (bear), JPM (bull), TME (bull) |
| Korea | -0.42 | -0.32 | +0.10 | 5B/9Be | GS (bull), JPM (bull), MUFG (bull) |
| JPY (+=Strong JPY) | -0.40 | -0.57 | -0.17 | 3B/12Be | JPM (bear), MUFG (bear), Mizuho (bear) |
| India | -0.31 | -0.13 | +0.18 | 5B/11Be | BofA (bull), GS (bear), MUFG (bull), TSLombard (bear) |
| Gold | -0.12 | -0.01 | +0.11 | 9B/8Be | ANZ (bear), BofA (bear), GS (bear), MUFG (bear) +1 more |
| Fed (+=Hike) | +0.16 | +0.43 | +0.27 | 17B/5Be | ANZ (bull), BofA (bull), Citi (bull), DB (bull) +6 more |
| EUR/USD (+=Long EUR) | -0.36 | -0.24 | +0.11 | 6B/16Be | Barclays (bear), Citi (bear), DB (bull), ING (bear) +4 more |
| Credit IG | -0.47 | -0.40 | +0.07 | 1B/1Be | - |
| Credit HY | -0.41 | -0.24 | +0.18 | 2B/6Be | JPM (bear), TSLombard (bull) |
| Copper | +0.03 | -0.22 | -0.25 | 3B/9Be | ANZ (bear), Barclays (bear), JPM (bear) |
| China | -0.24 | -0.29 | -0.05 | 6B/15Be | ANZ (bear), BofA (bull), JPM (bear), MUFG (bull) +1 more |
| Brent | -0.07 | -0.19 | -0.12 | 8B/15Be | ANZ (bear), BofA (bull), Citi (bull), DB (bear) +9 more |
2. Regime Narrative
Bullish Consensus
Average consensus moved from +0.51 to +0.07. 10 assets positive, 8 negative at phase end. Key moves: EM Equities -0.89, S&P500 -0.80, Gold -0.56, Brent -0.53.
Bearish Transition
Average consensus moved from -0.05 to -0.10. 5 assets positive, 17 negative at phase end. Key moves: AI Infra -0.54, Credit IG -0.41, EM Equities -0.36, Copper -0.33.
Broad Sell-Off
Average consensus moved from -0.11 to -0.04. 6 assets positive, 12 negative at phase end. Key moves: BoJ (+=Hike) -0.33, China -0.24, US 10Y (+=Bull Bond) -0.20, Credit HY -0.19.
Broad Sell-Off
Average consensus moved from -0.12 to -0.13. 5 assets positive, 16 negative at phase end. Key moves: JPY (+=Strong JPY) -0.34, USD -0.34, Nasdaq -0.28, Japan -0.23.
3. Consensus Scores — Current State (Apr 20, 2026)
| Asset | Score | Bull / Bear | Signal |
|---|
4. Biggest Movers — Peak to Current
| Asset | Peak | Peak Date | Current | Drop | Status |
|---|
EM Equities suffered the largest reversal at -1.48 (from +0.90 to -0.58). All 10 biggest movers are complete reversals — no partial weakening remains.
5. Bank Leadership Summary
Thought Leaders — First to Call Emerging Themes
Late Arrivals — Consistently in Last Quartile
Recent Conviction Movers — Most Active Flips (Last 14 Days)
6. Fade Targets & Actionable Signals
7. Watch for Tomorrow
Assets at Inflection Points
| Asset | Score | B/Be |
|---|
Key Catalysts
Data Quality & Methodology
